Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.924089 1.083772 1.262769 1.478314 1.730921 2.017706 2.368218
2024-10-13 0.638595 0.838685 1.089425 1.426910 1.869797 2.432007 3.201356
2024-10-20 0.486304 0.692295 0.971763 1.379026 1.958478 2.755183 3.937403
2024-10-27 0.388342 0.590120 0.882047 1.335789 2.025132 3.036402 4.639198
2024-11-03 0.333838 0.536694 0.846927 1.356748 2.176497 3.448450 5.582844
2024-11-10 0.307737 0.520304 0.861934 1.452083 2.450476 4.079509 6.956835
2024-11-17 0.277224 0.490688 0.849599 1.498409 2.648044 4.611760 8.246163
2024-11-24 0.246071 0.454342 0.819404 1.507596 2.780265 5.048091 9.430702
2024-12-01 0.217146 0.417022 0.781213 1.495130 2.869054 5.415857 10.540240
2024-12-08 0.193538 0.385710 0.748879 1.487506 2.963412 5.802988 11.738256
2024-12-15 0.176072 0.363456 0.730058 1.502224 3.101231 6.288416 13.196060
2024-12-22 0.153862 0.328353 0.681107 1.449146 3.094326 6.485331 14.091669
2024-12-29 0.148986 0.328979 0.705293 1.552969 3.432877 7.443357 16.762516
2025-01-05 0.130812 0.298500 0.660630 1.503560 3.436619 7.699751 17.949659
2025-01-12 0.115108 0.271091 0.618591 1.453380 3.430435 7.932123 19.116797
2025-01-19 0.101855 0.247281 0.581114 1.407815 3.427441 8.169867 20.331771
2025-01-26 0.094727 0.236885 0.572874 1.429913 3.587963 8.809846 22.621468
2025-02-02 0.093010 0.239423 0.595482 1.530423 3.955401 9.998223 26.472469
2025-02-09 0.088329 0.233799 0.597423 1.579265 4.199648 10.917115 29.773434
2025-02-16 0.082022 0.223025 0.584957 1.588950 4.343384 11.600547 32.555392
2025-02-23 0.075278 0.210076 0.565063 1.575808 4.423715 12.128553 34.992547
2025-03-02 0.069443 0.198766 0.547946 1.567770 4.517007 12.704901 37.659563
2025-03-09 0.065127 0.191095 0.539638 1.583287 4.679372 13.495498 41.077468